Photo: File Photo – Trent Wilkie, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter
By Trent Wilkie
Local Journalism Initiative Reporter
St. Albert Gazette
Alberta’s oil industry could face serious competition after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was arrested and flown to the United States to face drug‑trafficking charges. U.S. President Donald Trump says American companies will help restart Venezuela’s oil sector, ABC News reported Jan. 4.
The U.S. hasn’t restarted Venezuelan oil production yet, but plans are in motion. Maduro’s arrest on Jan. 3 was followed by President Donald Trump’s promise to “get the oil flowing” and bring in American firms to rebuild the country’s energy sector, ABC News reported. For now, sanctions remain and only Chevron, a major U.S. oil company, is operating under a limited licence, exporting about 140,000 barrels a day, CBS News said. Analysts warn any major recovery will take five to 10 years and tens of billions of dollars to repair infrastructure and stabilize the industry.
With that in mind, Venezuela produces heavy crude—the same thick oil that Alberta draws from the oil sands. U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are built for this type of oil. If Venezuela ramps up production, Alberta will be fighting for room in the same market. Analysts told ABC News that Venezuelan oil production could double or even triple if billions are invested to fix aging facilities. Some forecasts suggest output could reach four million barrels a day over the next decade.
According to the Canada Energy Regulatory, about 80 per cent of Alberta’s oil currently goes to U.S. refineries. That means if Venezuelan barrels start flowing again, prices for Western Canadian Select could drop, cutting profits for producers and shrinking provincial earnings.
Enverus Intelligence, a Calgary-based energy analytics firm, warned in October that global oil prices could fall to about US$40 a barrel if supply grows faster than demand. Alberta’s heavy crude already sells for less—around US$45 compared to US$57 for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate—highlighting the risk of even more pressure on revenues.
Alberta’s economy is still heavily tied to oil and gas—roughly one‑quarter of provincial income comes from the sector, OilPrice.com reported. Economists say the province needs to diversify more quickly, through carbon-capture projects, petrochemical plants, and renewable energy, to reduce its reliance on a single market.
The rebuild in Venezuela will take time, but more competition for the same buyers may not bode well for Alberta oil.